The Waiver Is the Policy: What 19 October Will Reveal About Who Washington...
A Licence Signed Before the Ink Was Dry On 9 October, three weeks after Donald Trump signed the most sweeping Russia sanctions statute of his presidency, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control...
View ArticleAs America puts its alliances at risk, Europe is learning to stand on its own
The US is seeking greater freedom of action and fewer international constraints, demanding more immediate returns from its alliances. But in doing so, it is undermining the institutions, partnerships,...
View ArticleUkraine’s Refinery Strikes Have Become a US Election Issue
“Don’t Hit Refineries” On 10 October, standing outside the White House, Donald Trump gave Ukraine a targeting instruction. “Don’t hit refineries. There’s plenty of targets,” he said of Volodymyr...
View ArticleGreece’s $4bn Bet: How Washington Is Rebuilding Its Eastern Mediterranean...
The Visit That Skipped Ankara On 7 October, Marco Rubio and Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis closed the sixth US–Greece Strategic Dialogue in Athens with $4bn in Foreign Military Sales,...
View ArticleEurope Is Rearming. It Is Not Integrating
For the better part of a decade, the European defence debate ran on a single complaint: Europe would not spend. That complaint is now obsolete. Germany’s defence budget has climbed to €108.2 billion...
View ArticleSisi’s Asian Tour: Egypt’s Strategic Shift Amid Middle East Tensions and Xi’s...
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s current Asian tour includes several Asian countries, such as South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The aim is to strengthen strategic partnerships and...
View ArticleEasing Sino-Japanese Relations? Japan Is Being Overly Optimistic
In November, China will host the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, drawing attention to Sino-Japanese relations. Compared to China, Japan appears more optimistic, viewing the summit as an opportunity to...
View ArticleThe importance of Secretary Rubio’s trip to Uzbekistan
Secretary Marco Rubio will visit Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in “mid-October” to attend a C5+1 summit to engage the Central Asian region. He will also lead a “historic” delegation of “more than 100 American...
View ArticleBrazil Election: How the Vote Could Reshape US Trade, Tariffs and Critical...
In the upcoming presidential runoff in Brazil, two candidates, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, represent very different visions for US-Brazil relations....
View ArticleWhy India’s 130 Million Voter Deletions Are Fueling Protests Ahead of Key...
India’s removal of approximately 130 million names from electoral rolls has triggered nationwide protests, with opposition parties accusing the Election Commission of conducting a voter verification...
View ArticleMake or Break in Beijing: Can the EU Get Anything Real From China by October?
A Chemical Nobody Had Heard Of On 3 October, five days before EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič landed in Beijing, China’s commerce ministry opened an anti-dumping investigation into p-nitrotoluene....
View ArticleThe Muscat Process: Making Dialogue a Security Capability
The hour after detectionGulf security is usually discussed in terms of deterrence, military capability, and external partnerships. All three matter. But when a crisis begins, the deciding factor can be...
View ArticleThe Black Sea’s Quiet Shipping War Reaches NATO Waters
Seventy Miles Off Byala At about 3am on 6 October, aerial and sea drones struck two Turkish-owned cargo ships some 70 nautical miles off the Bulgarian coast. The Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sank on the...
View ArticleNo Rear Area Left: How the Houthis Took the War Beyond Yemen
A drone strike on a Madinah power station did little physical damage. It confirmed something more consequential: the Houthi threat is no longer a feature of Yemen’s internal conflict but a projection...
View ArticleCan a US-Backed Pilot Zone Bring Security to Southern Lebanon?
Two months after Israeli troops withdrew from the Lebanese village of West Zawtar, residents are living with a paradox: they have returned home, but the war remains visible and audible just across the...
View ArticleBab al-Mandab: Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz Escape Route Under Fire
On 4 October, Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, went on television from Saudi Arabia to announce a campaign to retake the territory still held by the Houthis and restore...
View ArticleThe Blockade That Doesn’t Exist: How Europe Could Stumble Across Russia’s...
A Note About a Plan Nobody Has On 30 September Russia sent NATO members a written note claiming it had information that the alliance was preparing an air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad. It warned...
View ArticleCan Le Pen’s Budget Plan Deliver a Smaller French State Without Deepening the...
French presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally has unveiled a broad economic programme built around cutting public spending, reducing taxes, tightening immigration and...
View ArticleDid Trump’s America First Policy Weaken the US Ebola Response in Congo?
The Trump administration’s “America First” approach to Ebola has shifted the US response in the Democratic Republic of Congo away from one of its traditional priorities: getting American medical...
View ArticleWho Actually Decides the Nobel Peace Prize, and Can Trump Win It?
The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 9, putting renewed attention on one of the world’s most prestigious and closely watched awards. This year’s list of nominees is secret, meaning there...
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